With the Bills losing last night, the path to an AFC East title runs directly through Foxboro. The Patriots are two games up on the Bills and have a pretty favorable schedule down the stretch. They're on extended rest heading into this weekend, they've got an extra day to prep for the New York Football Giants (ode to Chris Berman), and then they hit the bye.
They'll be favored in both of those games, so going into the bye 11-2 is a very real possibility. Remember, this team combined to win 8 games over the past two seasons...
After the bye they get Buffalo at home, who will be seeking revenge but will be up against a serious rest advantage, and then take a trip to Baltimore. Buffalo and Baltimore both absolutely have better rosters than NE, but are both riding the struggle bus this year so who knows. NE then wraps up with NYJ and Miami who will both be firmly in the tank by then. (Thank God the Miami game is home as teams wilt under the Miami heat in January...)
So I think 13-4 or 14-3 is realistically in play here, and that's likely either the one or the two seed. Excuse me while I pinch myself to make sure I'm not dreaming. Regardless, let's get into the nuts and bolts of this week's game.
When the Bengals have the ball:
The Patriots defense cannot be run on, but I don't think Cincy really cares. They run the ball only 19.2 times per game which is last in the NFL, Flacco is happy to drop back 45 times, and without Jamar Chase this weekend, Tee Higgins is good for at least 15 targets and typically sees a 30-35% target share when Chase misses time. Historically Zac Taylor has done a real nice job og using motion and formations to get Higgins on Marcus Jones who feels like he's a foot too short for that assignment.
Also, without Milton Williams (IR), the Patriots pass rush is going to take a hit. Even when he isn't racking up big sack totals, his surge causes QBs to move off their spot, and into the arms of Chaisson or Landry. Also, Chase Brown is a problem catching the ball out of the backfield for Spillane and Gibbons who both want to be downhil.
We're gonna have a high variance game here for the Bengals, I expect a moderately successful passing attack, chunk plays, some turnovers and them abandoning the run in the second half.
When the Patriots have the ball:
Oh baby. The Patriots have been good on offense. Creative without being too precious about things, and the ball can be thrown to anyone. By the way, Tonga is gonna catch a TD at some point this year....
They are also getting healthier with Stevenson and Boutte coming back this week. Now fantasy nerds (and my son) will tell you that Stevenson doesn't matter because Trevyon is "Him". However, Vrabel is old school and players don't lose a job to injury. Stevenson is going to outcarry Henderson this week and drive Pats fans nuts, but that is likely the right balance. Let Stevenson have a high success rate, and let Henderson hit home runs.
Also, I haven't mentioned this yet, which is borderline negligent, the Bengals are terrible on defense. Like historically terrible. They are allowing 33.4 points a game, 418 yards of offense, and 6.3 yards per play. They are also allowing 4.1 touchdowns per game. To be clear they are #32 in every one of these statistics. It’s not just the box-score stats either—the Bengals are dead last in EPA per dropback allowed, which is basically the modern shorthand for “your passing defense is a raging tire fire.” Also, Trey Hendrickson (their only plus defesnive player isn't playing this weekend...
So we've got a healthy Patriots offense, going up against an absolute train wreck of a defense. That's gotta be great for the Drake Maye MVP case...
Final Prediction:
Patriots 38. Bengals 24 - This game is never as close as the score indicates The Patriots are up 2+ scores by half time, and McDaniels goes conservative for most of the 4th quarter. It's a solid, but expected win and they come home for the Giants on MNF.
No comments:
Post a Comment