Patriots Preview 11/13 vs the NJ Jets

I think going forward I'm going to reserve Thursday for the Cheap Beer of the Week, but with the Patriots playing on a Thursday night prime time slot, it's time to talk football.

Now before I get into the knitty gritty, I've got a confession to make.  I like what the Jets are doing right now.  The team is still playing hard for Aaron Glenn who is taking his lumps as a first time HC, but that's to be expected.  Remember, most HCs who succeed do it in their second job...  The trades at the deadline are letting them bottom out NBA style with multiple high picks in the next two years to rebuild the roster, and while Fields hasn't worked as a reclamation project, many other teams have shown that's an ok way to think about the position.  (Jones, Darnold, Mayfield, etc....)

With all of that said, this version of the Jets is designed to lose valiantly.  They aren't going to get blown out, but the goal is to finish 3-14 here so from a Patriot's perspective, this appears to be a solid W.  Let's look into why...

When the Jets have the ball:

The Jets are going to try and run the ball, which isn't viable against the Patriots front.  Williams, Barmore, Tonga and Spillane are all plus run defenders.  Fields has had success running the ball against the Patriots before, so I'm more worried about QB run than conventional run, but it's tough to build the whole plane out of that.

At this point, we've got enough evidence, Fields simply isn't accurate enough as a drop back passer, so the Jets don't want to throw more than 25 times.  While Fields moves away from the rush well, they aren't efficient here, so if the Patriots can keep them off schedule and in obvious passing downs, the Jets don't have an answer.

When the Patriots have the ball:

With this being a short week, I expect the game plan to be fairly vanilla.  With no Rhamondre, the interior run game will struggle, but McDaniels will stick with it.  With the Jets best run defender now in Dallas, they may find moderate success here.  Henderson should be a fantasy RB2 this week expecting 15 carries and 4 catches.

When the Pats drop back to pass, the Jets are going to play primarily man defense.  Ok, so they really only play man 40% of snaps, but that's more than most NFL teams do.  The challenge is that most of the Patriots pass catchers are better against zone (Diggs, Henry, Hooper).  I like Hollins to be productive because of his size, and Williams to have a day based on speed/quicks.  I do think we'll see a similar week as last week where the Patriots trade efficiency for explosives.  This likely isn't viable long term, but on a short week, we'll take it.

Final Prediction:

Pats 27, Jets 10

The Patriots know this is a short week and do the minimum they need to survive this.  The Jets play hard, but don't have two touchdowns in them.